Monthly Archives: May 2012

The Truth About Trade Deficits

For centuries, the mercantilist perspective has had an unfortunately persuasive voice in policy discussions centering on international trade. Essentially economic nationalism, mercantilism ruled yesteryear’s economy with its advocacy of low imports and high exports to retain a competitive advantage in the war-like international market of zero-sums(Ewert, 1996).

Although now infrequently championed under the title of mercantilism, this philosophy lingers in the popular fear of trade deficits. Many are led to believe that a deficit in trade exists when one nation imports more than it exports, leading to a preference for more “balanced trade” over free trade. The natural consequence of this misplaced fear is the doctrine of protectionism which, like its mercantilist forbearer, advocates strict economic protection of domestic producers from ghoulish international competitors.

However, open markets lead to natural balances without the need of government intervention or harmful protectionism. Thus, rather than a threat to the vitality of the American economy, the perceived trade deficit is factually a misinterpretation of international markets and a flawed justification for truly harmful protectionist policies.

Trade Deficits – The Perceived Problem

The balance of trade argument primarily contends that trade is a battleground where the United States must remain competitive so that America never becomes a “debtor nation” (Ewert 1987, para 3). The argument suggests that if the United States continues in a pattern of importing more physical goods than it exports, then the nation becomes dependent upon other nations and ends in a net loss.

This trade deficit is particularly manifested in the statistic that foreign investments in the American economy surpass American investments in foreign markets. (Ewert 1987, para. 3). Perceived as particularly menacing because of the belief that over-investment in foreign markets lowers domestic production and job creation, the trade deficit problem is a popular villain.

As Mises explains, the trade deficit argument quickly criminalizes the “unpatriotic consumption habits” of private individuals who must be curbed by benevolent government officials who better know how dollars ought to be spent in the interest of domestic prosperity (Mises 1967, 199). If these “unpatriotic” habits are permitted to perpetuate, then jobs and manufacturing processes will cease to exist in the United States and, to survive, Americans will have to entirely rely upon foreign nations.

Unconvinced, Mises argues that these policies are truly oriented to avoid government culpability for inflation and to divert the blame for rising prices on luxury-crazed consumers (193). Mises, and other like-minded thinkers, has further qualms with the trade deficit argument because of the solution that is often offered – protectionism.

Protectionism – The True Problem

The logical solution to the perceived trade deficit problem is to use government force to lower imports and increase exports. This protectionism endeavors to shield domestic producers from competition and to ensure that desired industries remain in business within the United States. However, to achieve that end, the government coercively prevents individuals from accessing desired markets abroad. Such a direct intervention into the economic decisions of private individuals is a violation of the rule of law as well as a threat to the ordering power of unfettered markets.

Thus, these means are not only illegitimate but, as Mises explains, they are also ineffective as citizens consume domestically and consequently drive up domestic prices for goods that are in artificially high demand (1969, 193). If these goods were previously exported to foreign markets, higher domestic prices will likely remove the incentive to sell them abroad and thus lessen the valued export rate.

Similarly, Mises warns that forced and artificial reduction of imports accordingly diminishes the spending power of foreign nations on American products. Thus, already reduced exports are further curbed as foreign consumers lack the capital needed to purchase those American exports that successfully enter the international market (Mises 1969, 193). As such, protectionist policies intended to balance trade actually decrease the exports they are intended to encourage.

Additionally, protectionism harms the foreign nations that mercantilist, balance of trade, and protectionist arguments tend to ignore. As Mises reminds, foreign trade involves multiple parties that all benefit from the exchange and when said exchanges are altered or halted, the standard of living necessarily decreases in the nations whose trade has been restricted (1969, 193). Thus, Mises and others advocate free trade, not balance of trade, as the proper economic persuasion.

Free Trade – The Proper Solution

As W.M. Curtiss explains, free markets completely avoid both favorable and unfavorable balances by simply striking a balance (1996, 36). Open markets will naturally discover the optimum level of foreign trade as both visible and invisible goods are voluntarily exchanged (Curtiss 1996, 37).

This perspective also recognizes the “invisible” elements, including travel and money, which are ignored by deficit arguments that generally only consider physical goods (Curtis 1996, 37). With this in mind, free market perspectives recognize that capital flows are the oft-ignored other side of a nation’s total transactions (Polleit 2005, para. 6). These capital flows, when unfettered by government intervention, also contribute to a natural balancing of voluntary international exchanges.

These voluntary exchanges are, rather than warlike, generally amicable as all concerned parties agree to the terms and outcomes of a particular trade. As Curtiss elaborates, “If you’re out of gas, you don’t feel hostile toward the person who sells you some” (1996, 37). The assumptions behind balance of trade policies ignore the fact that sometimes individual American consumers import the proverbial gas and, at other times, they export it. Such a process is both natural and expected.

Conclusion

With all of this in mind, it is clear that the trade deficit argument, and the proposed protectionist solution, reflects an illegitimate and improper understanding of international trade. As such, as David Hume powerfully argues, the “strong jealousy with regard to the balance of trade” and according fear that “[wealth] may be leaving” is a “groundless apprehension” not unlike a concern that “all…springs and rivers should be exhausted.” (1742, para. 4). Truly, just as rain replenishes the water supply, unhindered “people and industry” replenish the market (1742, para 4).

About The Author:

The above was written by Leah Stiles, a student of government and history at Regent University. She has completed a Koch leadership program and an internship with the Foundation for Economic Education.

References

Curtiss, W.M. (1996). The Tariff Idea. Irvington-on-Hudson, NY: Foundation for Economic Education.

Ewert, Ken C. (November, 1987). “The Trade Deficit” in The Freeman 37:11.

Hume, David. (1742). On The Balance of Trade.

Mises, Ludwig von. (1967). “On the International Monetary Problem” in Economic Freedom and Intervention: An Anthology of Articles and Essays edited by Bettina Bien Greaves.

Mises, Ludwig von. (1969). Interview with Professor Percy L. Greaves in Economic Freedom and Intervention: An Anthology of Articles and Essays edited by Bettina Bien Greaves.

Polleit, Thorsten. (November, 2004). “The Trade Deficit: An Austrian Perspective” in Mises Daily.

Why I Buy Gold Online Every Month

Every month, I buy gold and silver. I do this when gold and silver are going up, or staying flat, or even going down. This is a long-term strategy for me, and my goal is financial security.

I don’t own gold for the purpose of profits, short-term gain, or even necessarily because of medium-term forecasts, like a national-debt induced period of stagflation which I’ve written about in the past. Instead, my motivation for investing in gold is far more humble. It’s nothing more than a hedge against the mostly unknown.

This World is an Uncertain Place

The greatest economists have been wrong, and they’ve been wrong big time. Keynes didn’t see the great crash of ’29 until it was almost too late. Most economists didn’t see the subprime mortgage crisis until it was too late. Ron Paul predicted hyperinflation “very soon” in 1979. Nothing is certain — nothing.

This all adds up to a distasteful economic fact: the future is uncertain, whether you’re part of the Keynesian view, the Chicago view, or the Austrian view. If you’re an Austrian, you probably have a better grip on bubbles and busts, but that just solidifies the fact that you should know the world is volatile and uncertain, and there’s never any telling what’s just around the economic corner.

And, coincidentally, gold is a great long-term antidote to uncertainty.

Gold has done relatively well every time. As mentioned above, gold does well most of the time. It’s had crashes, sure, but the crash generally comes at a time when stocks and bonds are doing great, meaning the need to suddenly turn to that gold is usually diminished.

The Short and Simple Case for Gold

During times of economic uncertainty, gold is where investors often flood for a long-term safe haven. For short-term safety, cash is (almost) always king — but we’re talking about investing right now for financial security in the long term — for 2017, 2025, and 2050. Cash will be eaten alive between now and then. Gold? Probably not.

Gold isn’t tied to a specific economy. Unlike stocks, real estate, or bonds, gold prices aren’t necessarily tied to any one particular economy, corporation, or even location. Gold is a global market, with some currency and national arbitrage, but overall, it’s very global.

Gold never goes bankrupt. This can’t be said for stocks, bonds, or governments.

Gold profits from fear, and if the fear is actually a rational fear, then paper assets are likely the last place I want my future staked.

Buying 5-10 gold coins per year might not seem like a prudent investment to the equity bulls. It doesn’t earn an income, and won’t make anyone richer. But that’s simply not the purpose.

There has never been a time in the last 500 years where a box of gold coins wouldn’t have been at least a small fortune.

Gold and silver ETFs like GLD and SLV are great, but they’re also untested. I have no problem with either one of them, and I’ve used SLV to speculate in the past, most notably in 2011. But I approach them with a fundamentally different view — I can’t reach out and touch them.

So that’s why I buy some more physical gold every month. Call it insurance, call it investment, call it blind faith — it’s just me making a small bet every month that almost everything is mostly uncertain, and the only thing I know so far is that there’s a pretty darn good chance that a box of gold will retain value enough worth to fall back on.

It’s Not Either/Or

This doesn’t mean I’m not buying stocks, bonds, or cash. In my article on the permanent portfolio, I made it clear that such investments absolutely can be both secure and profitable, especially with a little more weight given toward equity in said portfolio.

But my physical gold bullion isn’t about that portfolio, and I don’t even count it anymore than I would count an insurance plan or my home or my cars. Physical gold coins, at least this particular stash, is about security and insurance and not profits.

This doesn’t mean profits are impossible. So far, the exact opposite has happened. But if suddenly the price of gold drops 75%, I’ll be buying just as much in dollars as usual, and I’ll be a little happier because that means the number of coins that year will go up without costing me any more.

This doesn’t mean everyone should copy me, because not everyone has the same set of goals. My goals are security first, and profits second, and I’m perfectly comfortable with having more of the former and less of the latter. So far, I’ve had both, but I doubt that’ll stay the case forever.

I’ve written about this mentality in my gold newsletter dozens of times. In the end, gold is an insurance in a volatile, crazy, politically corrupt, inflationary world. And that’s why I buy gold every single month.

Why We Absolutely Need the 1%

The 1%’ isn’t just a little group of evil international financiers who produce nothing besides wars and evil, maniacal laughs. No, the top 1% includes the top 1-2 million most successful and productive people in the country. And that’s why they’re so rich in the first place. I regularly read a rant or off-hand comment by some angry leftist saying “we don’t need the 1%”. This is a sickening philosophy, and would be hilarious, if only the world wasn’t convinced of the same bizarre belief. Let’s analyze the claim, starting with what should be obvious:

“The 1%” isn’t just a little group of evil international financiers who produce nothing besides wars and evil, maniacal laughs. No, the top 1% includes the top 1-2 million most successful and productive people in the country. And that’s why they’re so rich in the first place.

The top 1% of earners include, on average, the most successful people in every church, the leadership of every bank, the best engineers on earth, the most successful farmers, the founders of Facebook, the founders of Paypal, the founders of Amazon, the founders of eBay, the founders of Google, Warren Buffett, most successful small-business owners, famous doctors, famous surgeons, famous engineers — every man who has produced more than just a basic entry-level job’s worth of production.

It’s easy to hate some sort of vague, impersonal “the 1%” like they’re some sort of tyrannical number. But they’re not just an odd collective set to destroy the earth — they include the most productive people in the history of humanity.

And the richest Americans haven’t made any absurd claims about “we don’t need the 99%”, because there’s no need to choose both. There’s no need to envision a world without some group of people, because the consequences would be pointless poverty.

And yet on an almost daily basis, I’ve read or watched some angry, economically illiterate “activist” claim “we don’t need them; they need us”. It’s a communist and marxist talking point, and it’s complete BS. That’s why the communists starved throughout the 20th Century. That’s why North Korea’s people eat worse than our dogs eat in America.

Collectivism sucks, but if they want to play the game, let’s have the same standard and compare the impact of the rich and the poor on a per capita basis. Doing so will reveal why a consistent philosophy always destroys leftism. So let’s ask the same question that their talking point assumes:

Who do we need more?

The top 1%?

Or the bottom 1%?

Who is economically more influential and productive? The people waiting in line for the foodstamps? Or the men who have generated a multi-trillions for the world economy? It’s an awkward question.

We’ve been led to believe that it’s fine to question whether the rich are “useful” to “us”. We can demonize, dehumanize, and ignore them. We can rant against them. It’s fine. But the poor? They’re untouchable — whether they’ve made good or bad choices.

And hidden beneath the surface, this is why leftism is wrong. This is why economic statism and stealing from the rich to blindly give to the poor is wrong. It’s wrong because it requires — absolutely requires — double standards and a lack of consistency.

Notice I didn’t just say “rich versus poor”. That’s the entire point. The poor outnumber the rich by the millions — and comparing them with unequal numbers completely misses the point of why the rich are individually rich. The rich don’t have money because of some odd social group standing. Gates isn’t a billionaire because of Buffett. They’re rich individually, because of their individual life choices.

So if we’re going to compare the rich against the poor, the only standard that makes sense is to compare them on an individual level — which means on a per-capita basis. And that’s why the conclusions are so awkward and potent.

Consistency is Poison to Leftism

Leftist economics and philosophy crumbles the moment consistency is applied. It’s based on doubled standards, hypocrisy, and non-sense. All collectivist philosophies are.

That’s why they have different standards for whites and blacks, different standards for Romney’s personal spending and the Obama’s public spending, different standards for Al Gore’s lifestyle and the rest of our lifestyles. The philosophy only makes “sense” if we assume that double standards are fine.

Thank goodness, we don’t have to make a choice “between” any group of people — not with capitalism.

Under capitalism, there is no need to take from one group to give to another. Capitalism treats people as individuals, and nothing more. And by treating people as individuals, it requires consistency — and that consistency is what drives leftism into the ground.

Socialism requires us to think in terms of the 99%. Corporatism — the idea that the laws should be written in the interests of some — requires us to think in terms of the 1%. But capitalism, the philosophy we believe at Capitalism Institute, requires us think in terms of individuality. And because, by definition, everyone is an individual, no one is excluded.

We are the 100%.

Copyright Capitalism Institute, 2011-present.